US-Iran 60-Day Truce Drafted But Unsigned as Ballistic Missiles Target Kuwait; Israel Strikes Beirut
US and Iranian negotiators finalized a 60-day ceasefire framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but the deal awaits final approval from US President Donald Trump and Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei [N19, S81, S109].
Executive Summary
US and Iranian negotiators drafted a 60-day ceasefire memorandum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but kinetic exchanges overnight threaten the agreement before presidential signatures. Iran launched a ballistic missile at Kuwait and drones at US vessels, prompting retaliatory US strikes on Bandar Abbas. Concurrently, Israel expanded its offensive into Beirut and southern Lebanon, freezing UN ties over a sexual violence blacklist.
Infrastructure & Logistics
24-Hour AI Outlook
Expect extreme maritime friction in the Strait of Hormuz over the next 24 hours as the IRGC Navy attempts to enforce its toll system while US warships actively block them [S152, S157]. US President Donald Trump's pending decision on the 60-day ceasefire MOU will dictate immediate market movements; a rejection will likely trigger a spike in Brent crude above $92 [S104]. Israeli strikes in Beirut will likely provoke Hezbollah retaliatory drone swarms targeting northern Israeli military infrastructure [S13, S195].